Target state and roadmap
The capability heat map and the portfolio review told you where Mangrove hurts. This lesson turns that into a design for the future and a plan to get there: a target state traced to the board's goals, a gap analysis, transition states that each deliver value, a sequenced set of work packages, and a one-page roadmap the board can fund one gate at a time.
By the end you can
- Run a gap analysis between a baseline and a target, and catch the things that would be removed by accident
- Design a target state where every element traces to a goal and a hot capability
- Cut the journey into transition architectures (plateaus) that each work on their own and deliver value
- Sequence work packages with four rules and compute each one's earliest start
- Put costs, benefits and funding gates on one page for the board
The everyday picture
Think of a family that wants to renovate the house they live in. The architect draws the finished house: a bigger kitchen, a new bedroom for the baby due in spring, solar panels. That drawing is the target. Nobody can move out for a year, so the builder plans the work in stages, and after each stage the family can still cook, sleep and wash.
The order is not free. The wiring and the pipes go first, because the new kitchen needs them, even though nobody admires new pipes. The bedroom must be ready before the baby arrives, whatever else slips. A cheap win early, such as fixing the leaking roof, keeps the family patient. And the bank does not hand over the whole loan on day one: it pays in stages, after an inspector checks each stage. An enterprise roadmap works the same way: a target drawing, stages you can live in, foundations first, a fixed date, early wins, and money released at gates.
Baseline, target and the gaps between them
Planning change starts with three things. The baseline architecture is how things are today. The target architecture is how you want them to be at the end of the plan. A gap analysis compares the two, element by element. TOGAF, The Open Group's architecture standard (10th Edition, 2022), uses gap analysis in each of its architecture phases.
TOGAF describes the technique as a matrix. List the baseline elements down the side and the target elements across the top. Add a final row called "New" and a final column called "Eliminated". Then fill each cell:
- In both baseline and target: kept, perhaps with changes. Write what changes.
- In the target only: the "New" row. A gap to fill by building, buying or setting something up.
- In the baseline only: the "Eliminated" column. Was it removed on purpose, or did the target forget something it does?
That last question is why the method exists. Old systems do more than their name says. Mangrove's back-office order entry (2014) is where reps re-key phone orders, so the target removes it once reps order in the Partner app. Before you write "eliminated", list every function it performs: it may also print a list or feed a report someone depends on. Each function needs a new home or a recorded decision to drop it.
For the partner business (the applications you assessed in Application portfolio):
| Baseline | Target | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Partner data in three places; 1 record in 8 disagrees | One partner master record | New; two copies removed |
| About 1,500 phone orders a week re-keyed | Rep mode in the Partner app | New; order entry eliminated |
| Credit approvals by email and spreadsheet | Credit rules service, requests in the app | New; spreadsheet eliminated |
| ERP finance module | Same, still the record for invoices and limits | Kept; connects to the credit service |
| WMS 7 in North and East, 9 in South and West | WMS 9 in all five DCs | Changed |
| Route tool in East, spreadsheets elsewhere | One route tool for all DCs | Changed |
| Cash to the rep or driver; paid after 23 days | Mobile wallet collections | New |
| Rep CRM spreadsheets | Same, reading from the master | Kept for now |
| (none) | Systems for a fifth DC | New |
Quick check
In your gap matrix, the credit approvals spreadsheet has no match in the target. What should you do before you mark it eliminated?
The "Eliminated" column exists to catch hidden functions. A spreadsheet used every day often carries reports or evidence nobody wrote down. Assuming the replacement covers everything is how a target removes something by accident, and keeping both creates the duplicate you were trying to remove.